Interest rate cuts as early as Q4 2023

The anticipated interest rate cut confirms the good condition of the Polish economy and is eagerly awaited news by many borrowers

Warsaw, 5th May 2023 – ‘Obserwator Finansowy’ – an information portal within the NBP –has published the results of a survey of several economists from 12 independent institutions The survey questions focused on interest rates and inflation. The research found that 40% of the respondents believe there is a very high or high probability of a first interest rate cut by the Monetary Policy Council (Polish: Rada Polityki Pieniężnej, RPP) in Q4 2023. Furthermore, 70% of the economists surveyed expect inflation to fall below 10% over the period.

Ireneusz Dąbrowski, Professor at the Warsaw School of Economics and member of the RPP, agrees with the forecast. In a [recent] Polsat news programme he stated that inflation is falling faster and “there is a high probability that it will already be in single digits after the holidays […]. The Council will give very serious consideration to reducing interest rates”. Other RPP members Gabriela Masłowska and Henryk Wnorowski spoke in a similar vein.

Representatives from 12 economic centres took part in the survey: Polish Economic Institute, PKO Bank Polski, Bank Pocztowy, Collegium of Management and Finance, UNESCO Chair at the University of Szczecin, Macroeconomic Analysis Department of the University of Warsaw, the Poznań University of Economics, Faculty of Management and Social Communication at Jagiellonian University, WSB Merito University in Poznań, Polish Chamber of Commerce, Instytut Studiów Podatkowych, DMK/AceMarketU.